The claim is premised on the fact that the two countries and other African countries were the major markets for premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol refined in USA and Europe.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, has stated that the construction of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in Nigeria and Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico would affect plants in the United States of America, USA, and Europe.
The claim is premised on the fact that the two countries and other African countries were the major markets for premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol refined in USA and Europe.
It was gathered that the Dos Bocas refinery could process about 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) which would make Mexico self-sufficient in refined petroleum products and the Dangote Oil Refinery could process 650,000 bpd, showing capacity to meet demands across Nigeria and West African markets.
In its latest 2024 World Oil Outlook 2050, OPEC, stated: “New mega-projects are poised to alter the international downstream market. For instance, the start-up of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the upcoming commercial start of the Dos Bocas refinery in Mexico could significantly affect the gasoline market in the Atlantic basin.
“Although both regions import significant volumes of gasoline from the international market, this could change when these two refineries reach full operation. This in turn could negatively affect refineries in the US and especially Europe, as gasoline markets in these regions are stagnating.”
The report also mentioned that the downstream market and related trade dynamics are still strongly influenced by geopolitics.
It added: “The EU embargo on Russian crude and product exports has altered interregional oil flows, with EU refiners increasing crude oil imports from regions such as the US and Middle East.
“EU product imports of non-Russian origin also increased, especially from India, the US and the Middle East. Recently commissioned plants in the Middle East have also started exporting diesel to the EU, including Jizan in Saudi Arabia and Duqm in Oman. Turning to broader downstream trends, global refinery throughputs have continued their growth.
“Nigeria is starting to emerge as a key player in the global trade of middle distillates and light ends,” Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk said.
He continued: “The Dangote refinery will soon rival the largest refining sites in the US and it is more than 50% larger than Europe’s biggest refinery.
“Refinery ramp-ups can be tricky, and there will be delays. But once the site starts operating at full capacity, it will transform fuel markets in the West African region and change trade flows in Europe. In other words, Nigerian refined products will soon be making its way into Northwest Europe, traditionally an exporter.
“Then there’s feedstock. Once Dangote refinery will be purchasing at full throttle, there will be less crude in the Atlantic basin, notably in Europe.”
