International Energy Agency separately warns that the coming winter would prove to be the ‘sternest test yet’ for Ukraine’s energy grid.
Russian air strikes on Ukraine’s electricity generation, transmission and distribution facilities probably violate international humanitarian law, according to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU).
The report published on Thursday focused on nine waves of attacks between March and August this year.
HRMMU said it had visited seven power plants that were damaged or destroyed by attacks, as well as 28 communities affected by the strikes.
“There are reasonable grounds to believe that multiple aspects of the military campaign to damage or destroy Ukraine’s civilian electricity and heat-producing and transmission infrastructure have violated foundational principles of international humanitarian law,” the report said.
The first big wave of strikes hit in 2022, several months after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February that year.
The attacks have continued throughout the war, though Moscow has markedly stepped up its campaign since last March.
Each wave of strikes has left Ukrainian cities without power for hours at a time for weeks on end.
Ukraine says the targeting of its energy system is a war crime, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for four Russian officials and military officers for the bombing of civilian power infrastructure.
Russia says power infrastructure is a legitimate military target and has dismissed the charges against its officials as irrelevant.
“Russia is trying to plunge Ukraine in the dark with targeted attacks on its energy systems,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday as she announced that 160 million euros ($178m) from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets will be allocated to meet Ukraine’s urgent humanitarian needs for this winter.
Russia has knocked out about 9 gigawatts of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which von der Leyen said was the “power equivalent of the three Baltic states”.
A fuel power plant is being dismantled in Lithuania and will be rebuilt in Ukraine, where 80 percent of the country’s thermal plants have been destroyed, she said. A third of Ukraine’s hydropower is also out.
The HRMMU said the attacks posed risks to Ukraine’s water supply, sewage and sanitation, to the provision of heating and hot water, public health, education and the wider economy.
It highlighted a particular problem in urban areas, where most homes are linked to centralised heating and hot water systems.
The report said that nearly 95 percent of residents in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, relied on centralised basement heating systems whose output required electric pumps to reach the upper floors of the building.
“Without emergency electricity supply, millions of urban residents could be left without heat,” it said.
HRMMU cited experts as saying that Ukrainians should expect power outages of between four and 18 hours a day this winter.
‘Sternest test yet’
Separately, the International Energy Agency made a similar grim prediction on Thursday, with IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol saying the coming winter would prove the “sternest test yet” for Ukraine’s energy grid.
The IEA report said that in 2022 and 2023 “about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed or damaged, and approximately half of the large network substations were damaged by missiles and drones”.
It warned of a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand”. The report urged European countries to expedite deliveries of equipment as well as parts to rebuild the damaged facilities and called for measures to protect them from drones.
Latest attacks
On Thursday, Ukraine’s national grid operator Ukrenergo said Russia attacked energy infrastructure in Sumy overnight, prompting a temporary power cut in the northeastern region.
Nine Ukrainian regions were attacked by Russia overnight, according to the war-torn country’s air force, saying it shot down all 42 drones and one of four missiles.
Serhiy Lysak, the governor of the central Dnipropetrovsk region, said the air force had shot down one missile over his region, and that no one was hurt there.
Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Syniehubov said six people were wounded in a Russian attack on the eastern town of Kupiansk, 8km (five miles) from the front line.
Civilian infrastructure, a school, a kindergarten and 10 apartment buildings were damaged in the city of Kharkiv, he said.
An educational institution was also damaged in the Cherkasy region, regional governor Ihor Taburets said.
One elderly woman was killed and two other women were wounded by Russian strikes in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, Governor Ivan Fedorov said on Thursday.
Russian forces shelled the region 161 times over the past 24 hours, damaging infrastructure facilities and residential buildings, he said on the Telegram messaging app.
‘Victory Plan’
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that his “Victory Plan”, intended to bring peace to his country while keeping it strong and avoiding all “frozen conflicts”, was now complete after much consultation.
Zelenskyy pledged last month to present his plan to US President Joe Biden, presumably next week when he attends sessions of the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly.
While providing daily updates on the plan’s preparation, Zelenskyy has given few clues of its content, indicating only that it aims to create terms acceptable to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address that there was no alternative to peace, “no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage”.
